Week 11 Key Games

Week 11 Key Games and Picks

 

  Week 11 is here, and the action is going to continue to heat up each week from here on into Conference Championship Week in December. Every week will help shape the first ever College Football Playoff. November is #EliminationMonth. So who is in this week and who is out? 

   #7 Kansas State at #6 TCU 

  This is a huge game for the Big-12 Conference. Obviously, the conference championship is on the line for both teams, but more importantly, the loser is eliminated from having a chance at the College Football Playoff. Defense will be key in this game, and Kansas State has proven they have a very solid defense. This is a game where the Wildcats defense will need to play one of their best games. TCU's offense has proven time and time again that they can overcome early struggles.... So they will push Kansas State to their limit in this game. TCU being at home will be a huge factor as well. I like what TCU has been able to do so far this season, but I like Kansas State's defensive ability more.... And that's where I think it will be decided. 

My Pick: Kansas State wins a close battle that comes down to defense in the 4th qtr.

    #14 Ohio State at #8 Michigan State

  Ohio State would love to have some revenge against the Spartans this year for what happened between these two teams last season. (Michigan State stunned Ohio State in the Big-10 Championship game, which took Ohio State out of the championship discussion.) This season, if Michigan State wins out, the Spartans are a likely choice for the College Football Playoff. If Ohio State wins this game and the rest of the way, their chances of making the playoff are not as great due to their loss earlier in the season to a bad Virginia Tech team. So, Michigan State clearly has more riding on this game, and playing at home, I would expect a very focused and determined team. The Buckeyes have improved since their loss earlier this season, but are they better than Michigan State? That's the question, and I am not ready to buy into Ohio State just yet. Michigan State's defense is the X-Factor in this game. 

My Pick: Michigan State, Defense and sustaining drives will be the difference in this game.

    #5 Alabama at #16 LSU

  

 Let's not read too far into this matchup. While LSU has managed to get a couple key wins this season, the fact remains that this is one of the worst LSU teams we have seen in the last decade. Their defense plays well sometimes, but their offense has yet to show anything special. In fact, LSU has become very one dimensional on offense. They can run the ball, but I don't think that's going to be enough against Alabama. The only chance I can give LSU in this game is if Blake Sims has a horrible game. It's possible, as proven last week when LSU was able to force "Bad Bo" to show up for Ole Miss. More is riding on Blake Sims in this game, and if Alabama falls in this game, the Crimson Tide are OUT of the playoff, regardless if they win the rest of their games. The storyline for Alabama in this game will be all about Blake Sims. His struggles on the road are nothing to ignore, and believe me, LSU will try to get in his head early in this game.

My Pick: Alabama, I believe the Tide will get an early lead in this game and that will be too much for a bad LSU offense to play catch-up with a much better Alabama defense.

    #1 Mississippi State hosting UT MARTIN

 Yep, this is a real match-up. Nope, it's not week one or week two.... It's November and this is a real match-up for the #1 team in the nation. 

    #4 Oregon at #17 Utah

  This might be a sneaky good game to watch..... the key word being might. Oregon has a lot riding on this game, much like Michigan State vs Ohio State.... The Ducks have the PAC-12 Title to play for, and, of course, the College Football Playoff. While I respect Utah for what they have accomplished this season, I don't think they have the firepower to hang with Oregon. The Ducks have been more focused after their loss to Arizona earlier this season. Marcus Mariota is playing some of his best football and I think he has finally stepped into that leadership role for the Ducks. The team rallies around him and feeds off of his energy. This may be a road game for Oregon, but I don't think that will bother them much in this game.

My Pick: Oregon, Once the Ducks' offense gets rolling, it's hard to stop, and it's even harder to catchup with them.

    #10 Notre Dame at #9 Arizona State

  Another great match-up that will eliminate another team from being able to get into the College Football Playoff. This is exactly the kind of game college football fans like to see this late in the season. No matter which team wins this game, I think the winner will still need a little bit of help to get into the College Football Playoff. Now, this matchup, Notre Dame has looked a little flat in some recent games, especially against Navy. However, when the Irish play in a big game, they seem to focus and play better football. We will see if they can continue that trend when they play AT Arizona State. This will be a fun game to watch and I think the Sun Devils have a real shot at winning this game. Make no mistake about this game.... Arizona State may be favored, but Notre Dame will give them all they can handle, and then some. The Sun Devils will need to play some of their best football to win this game.

My Pick: Notre Dame, Their ability to play well on the road in big games will pay off against Arizona State.

    #12 Baylor at #15 Oklahoma

  If Baylor wins this game, that brings them one step closer to their goals this season, but again, I think they need some help to sneak into the College Football Playoff. A loss for Baylor will end their hopes at making the playoff. Oklahoma still has some fight left in them. Since there isn't a Big-12 Championship, every conference game matters, and of course, if some pieces fall the right way, Oklahoma could find themselves back in the hunt for winning the Big-12. The X-Factor in this game will be the Baylor offense. Their offense can score a lot of points and score them fast. If Oklahoma isn't careful in this game, they could find themselves playing catch-up. Baylor can close games out with quick scores in the 4th qtr, So Bob Stoops better have his defense ready.

My Pick: Oklahoma, Defense will be the difference in this game, and I think the Sooners can control the tempo by keeping Baylor's offense off the field.

   Enjoy the games this weekend. Every week the rest of the season will have great games and #EliminationGames. 

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